Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1421 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 1421 · ORD → JFK

departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 8:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±7 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,367 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1421 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?