Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1438 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1438 · DFW → BDL

departs 12:22 PM CT · arrives 4:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BDL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BDL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1438 · DFW → BDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDL?