Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1461 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 1461 · ORD → BOS

departs 5:21 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1461 · ORD → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?