AA 1475 · ORD → LAS

departs 1:58 PM CT · arrives 4:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1475 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?