AA 1505 · FLL → PHX

took off 6:00 PM ET · expected to land 7:31 PM MT (scheduled 5:29 PM ET → 7:27 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1505 · FLL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?