Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1559 LANDED 10:20 AM MT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 1559 · PHX → TUS

took off 9:57 AM MT · landed 10:20 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1559 · PHX → TUS

Odds over time