AA 1646 · PHL → MCO

departs 2:28 PM ET · arrives 5:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1646 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?