AA 1689 · LGA → ORD

departs 9:15 PM ET · arrives 10:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 9pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1689 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?