AA 1759 · RDU → PHL

departs 10:44 AM ET · arrives 12:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1759 · RDU → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?