AA 1822 · DFW → SBA

took off 10:11 AM CT · landed 11:12 AM PT (scheduled 10:17 AM CT → 11:59 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1822 · DFW → SBA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBA?