AA 1834 · RSW → PHL

took off 5:25 PM ET · expected to land 7:40 PM ET (scheduled 4:43 PM ET → 7:38 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

PHL (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1834 · RSW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?