Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1841 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1841 · DFW → ILM

departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1841 · DFW → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?