AA 1844 · PHL → SAN

departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 7:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1844 · PHL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?