Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1874 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 1874 · PHL → BOS

departs 10:20 PM ET · arrives 11:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 10pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 333 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1874 · PHL → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?