Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1891 LANDED 3:41 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 1891 · AUS → JFK

took off 11:40 AM CT · landed 3:41 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at JFK that day

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1891 · AUS → JFK

Odds over time