AA 1892 · PHL → ATL

departs 9:52 PM ET · arrives 12:13 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1892 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?