AA 1971 · CUN → PHL

departs 11:05 AM EST · arrives 3:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at CUN

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CUN (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1971 · CUN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?