Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2194 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2194 · MSY → DFW

departs 6:01 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from MSY are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.14 in

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2194 · MSY → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?