Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2202 LANDED 3:13 PM CT, ~19 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 2202 · MLM → DFW

took off · landed 3:13 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MLM

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

MLM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2202 · MLM → DFW

Odds over time