AA 2221 · LGA → RDU

took off 10:05 AM ET · expected to land 11:19 AM ET (scheduled 9:44 AM ET → 11:27 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

LIVE

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2221 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?