Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2227 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 2227 · OMA → PHX

departs 6:29 PM CT · arrives 7:11 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2227 · OMA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?