AA 2236 · PHL → RSW

departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 11:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2236 · PHL → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?