Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2284 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 2284 · PHX → DSM

departs 7:11 PM MT · arrives 11:37 PM CT

Your aircraft is N763US (A319), coming in as AA 2783 from SEA: landed 5:47 PM MT.

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2284 · PHX → DSM

Odds over time