Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2329 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2329 · TPA → PHX

departs 6:31 PM ET · arrives 7:54 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2329 · TPA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?