Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2392 IN THE AIR (OFF 10:20 PM CT, ETA 12:06 AM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

AA 2392 · ORD → SEA

took off 10:20 PM CT · expected to land 12:06 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2392 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time