AA 2405 · PHL → AUS

took off 9:05 AM ET · landed 11:28 AM CT (scheduled 9:11 AM ET → 12:19 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2405 · PHL → AUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUS?