AA 2412 · AUS → PHX

departs 6:44 PM CT · arrives 7:22 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2412 · AUS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?