Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2421 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 2421 · DFW → DSM

departs 2:08 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2421 · DFW → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?