Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2568 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 2568 · DFW → SAN

departs 10:55 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±6 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2568 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?