Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2576 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 2576 · PHX → SJC

departs 4:40 PM MT · arrives 6:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2576 · PHX → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?