Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2642 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2642 · PBI → PHL

departs 7:08 AM ET · arrives 9:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from PBI are usually not late

Weather at each end

PBI (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2642 · PBI → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?