AA 2781 · RDU → PHL

departs 5:57 AM ET · arrives 7:34 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 333 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from RDU are usually not late

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling333 ft Visibility6.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2781 · RDU → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?