Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2813 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2813 · TPA → DFW

departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 7:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

DFW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2813 · TPA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?