Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2820 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2820 · PHL → PHX

departs 9:45 AM ET · arrives 11:49 AM MT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2820 · PHL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?