AA 3017 · LAX → MCO

took off 2:18 PM PT · landed 9:44 PM ET (scheduled 2:04 PM PT → 10:00 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3017 · LAX → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?