Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3019 LANDED 1:40 PM CT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 3019 · PHX → DSM

took off 9:14 AM MT · landed 1:40 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3019 · PHX → DSM

Odds over time