AA 3023 · DFW → IAH

departs 10:52 PM CT · arrives 12:09 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3023 · DFW → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?