Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3026 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 3026 · JFK → AUS

departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 10:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,167 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3026 · JFK → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?