Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3186 LANDED 2:03 PM ET, ~18 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

AA 3186 · PHL → BOS

took off 1:05 PM ET · landed 2:03 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3186 · PHL → BOS

Odds over time