AA 3224 · LGA → BOS

departs 4:08 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3224 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?