Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3227 LANDED 5:00 PM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

AA 3227 · PHX → MSY

took off 12:25 PM MT · landed 5:00 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3227 · PHX → MSY

Odds over time