AA 3249 · BNA → PHL

departs 1:23 PM CT · arrives 4:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3249 · BNA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?