Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 53 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 53 · SAT → PHX

departs 10:15 AM CT · arrives 10:22 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 53 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time