AA 557 · PHL → ATL

departs 4:13 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 557 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?