AA 566 · PHX → JFK

departs 1:18 PM MT · arrives 9:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,867 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 566 · PHX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?