Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 811 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 811 · SAN → ORD

departs 1:07 PM PT · arrives 7:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 811 · SAN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?