Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 861 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:19 PM ET, ETA 4:27 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 861 · BDL → ORD

took off 3:19 PM ET · expected to land 4:27 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from BDL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BDL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 861 · BDL → ORD

Odds over time