Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 861 LANDED 1:56 PM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 861 · ORD → BDL

took off 11:22 AM CT · landed 1:56 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BDL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 861 · ORD → BDL

Odds over time