Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 872 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 872 · DFW → MFE

departs 10:40 PM CT · arrives 12:15 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MFE?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MFE that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MFE (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 872 · DFW → MFE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFE?