AA 986 · SEA → PHL

took off 8:55 AM PT · expected to land 4:29 PM ET (scheduled 8:32 AM PT → 4:49 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 986 · SEA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?